I am a strong advocate of waiting to draft a quarterback. It's a strategy that works. And I've never been more sure of it than this year.
Here's why: using the CBS Fantasy Football average draft position (ADP), Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, RG III, Colin Kaepernick, Teddy Bridgewater, and Carson Palmer are all being drafted outside of the top-12 quarterbacks and in round eight or later. Often, a few of these go undrafted altogether.
Similarly, if you look at the ESPN Fantasy Football Draft Kit Top 300, you can trade Matthew Stafford for Ryan Tannehill and have virtually the same list.
In other words, you can wait and draft your starting quarterback after many defenses and kickers and end up with a legitimate starting QB. Other names not listed but who could have been included: Joe Flacco, Derek Carr, Alex Smith, either Eagles' QB (Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez), and either of the highly touted rookie QBs (Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota).
I do not usually recommend carrying multiple quarterbacks on your fantasy roster, but, if you choose to wait and draft a combination of any of these QBs late and play the matchups, I wouldn't argue about it.
If you want to dominate your fantasy football draft this year, wait on a quarterback.
For a more specific breakdown of my rankings, here are my top-16 fantasy quarterbacks for 2015:
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) - No brainer. Easy, safe decision.
- Andrew Luck (Ind) - Could be #1, but I want to see it more than once.
- Drew Brees (NO) - Consistency and numbers. What more do you want?
- Peyton Manning (Den) - Interchangeable with any of the top three.
- Tony Romo (Dal) - Dez is happy, and he'll throw more.
- Russell Wilson (Sea) - I think he will throw more, and Dez is happy.
- Tom Brady (NE) - He'll be great when the controversy dies down.
- Matt Ryan (Atl)-Always great value.
- Cam Newton (Car)-Could easily be top five.
- Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)-Top ten, but not top five.
- Matthew Stafford (Det)-Best value of the draft, IMHO.
- Colin Kaepernick (SF)-I'm expecting a bounce back.
- Eli Manning (NYG)-Could also be one of the best value picks of the draft.
- Carson Palmer (Ari)-If he stays healthy, he could win you a fantasy league.
- Ryan Tannehill (Mia)-Should be higher, but could drop.
- Jay Cutler (Chi)-Up and down, but won't finish out of the top sixteen.
- Philip Rivers (SD)-You could do a lot worse.
- Robert Griffin, III (Was)-I expect he'll finish higher.
- Joe Flacco (Bal)-Not bad if you waited this long.
- Alex Smith (KC)-A solid bye-week replacement, if nothing else.
I'm also expecting a big year from Teddy Bridgewater, and considering where you can draft him, he's worth a gamble. The Eagles' QB should also finish in the top twelve, but you might need to handcuff the two given Sam Bradford's injury history and Mark Sanchez's history.
Derek Carr and Blake Bortles could also easily finish in the top sixteen given that they'll likely be chasing points most weeks. And didn't even rank the highly-touted rookies, Jameis Winson and Marcus Mariota.
The quarterback position is so deep, it only makes sense to wait and draft a quarterback late.
May you dominate your draft.