Last week on the show we discussed the 2015 Perfect Draft. Peter did a fantastic job researching and putting that together, both for the radio show and the website. I highly encourage you read that. Now, that was all rainbows and butterflies.
This week is the worst possible draft. I took a little different approach than Peter. He looked at the numbers and based his team off of the actual fantasy point numbers. I’m a numbers geek, but I’m also very emotional with my picks. That said, I am going through my thought process on each of these picks - sort of a “the mind on fantasy draft day.”
It has been said many times, and clichés are clichés because they’re typically true. “You can’t win a draft in the first couple rounds, but you can lose it.” I have a huge advantage with all the research I’ve done. Some of these dudes are being drafted way lower than they should be, this is going to be the best fantasy season ever. My picks, here we go…
First Round - C.J. Anderson (RB, Den).
I didn’t expect Eddie Lacy to fall to me here. He’s in a great offense, has the best QB in the league. He’s a lock for 1200 and 10. I’m a Lions fan though, I can’t hitch my wagon to a Packer! DeMarco Murray was the #1 RB in some formats last season, and he is playing in an up tempo offense now. He did have a ton of carries last season. Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson had bad seasons after their big workload seasons. Pass. C.J. Anderson! Yes! He was one of the best RBs late last season, catches the ball out of the backfield, gets goal line carries, and he checks a whole lot of boxes. Hillman is back, and Anderson does only have a small sample size, but if I don’t take him here, I’m going to be as depressed as I was last season when I wasn’t able to grab him at the end of the season.
Second Round - Randall Cobb (WR, GB).
I have my RB1. Let’s look for some superstars. Andrew Luck was the best QB in a lot of league formats last season and helped me win a few leagues. I don’t like taking QBs early, but he’s uber elite. Peyton Manning is also here. I would rather have Luck, though. I’m going to pass on a QB at this spot. Randall Cobb is here. Nelson went down. Rodgers has to give those targets to someone, and it should be Cobb. He’s set for an even bigger breakout season. Elite RB, elite WR in the first two rounds, I’m not so sure you can’t win in the first couple rounds.
Third Round - Jimmy Graham (TE, Sea).
Now is when I can start to separate. I have a stud back and a stud wide out. Alfred Morris isn't a stud, but he's about as consistent as it gets at the position. Not too bad for a guy that just has to be the RB2. I can wait for upside though. Jimmy Graham was a first rounder last season. He did have a down year and got traded to the team that throws the ball the least in the league. That shouldn't matter, they traded an All Pro center and a #1 pick for him. He also has the chance to be a super elite player at a position that doesn't have anyone after the top 2 or 3. He might get more targets than last season. After all, who else does Seattle have in the passing game, Doug Baldwin...?
Fourth Round - Melvin Gordon (RB, SD).
No more messing around. I need that second RB. Carlos Hyde or Melvin Gordon? Both are upside plays. I like that. Hyde has a running QB, and that typically creates more running room. I like that, too. Gordon has a prolific QB. I like that. Hyde showed flashes last season, however, he wasn't good enough to get consistent snaps over an old man. SD traded up to get Gordon, and the only guy they have in SD is Danny Woodhead, coming back from injury no less.
Fifth Round - Joseph Randle (RB, Dal).
So far, so good. My core is strong, I've hit all the skill positions other than QB, and there are still quality backs on the board. Living in Texas, I'm shocked no one has taken Jason Witten yet. I am set at TE with Graham. He'll miss a game or two but I can always stream a guy like Jordan Reed. There's no reason to draft my second TE here. Joique Bell does get an offense that is coached by the same OC that coached Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. Bell is a similar style back to those guys. Hmm, Joseph Randle. Murray was fantastic behind that line last season. His only competition is Darren McFadden, Old Man Darren McFadden. I hear all the time how that line could block for me and I'd gain 1000. Risky, but I like it. He only my flex!
Sixth Round - Tony Romo (QB, Dal).
There are some options here. I like options. Martellus Bennett is going to have a great start of the season. He always does! Going into the season with 2 of the top 5 at a position is never bad, I can't do it though. Andre Johnson and Devante Adams are there, and wide receiver is still a position of need. Johnson gets one of the best QBs in the league after having a hodgepodge of crap in Houston (sorry, Case Keenum). The logic that applied to Cobb (who was a steal where I got him) also applies to Adams. WR is deep this season, though, so I can wait for my second guy. Matthew Stafford killed me last season, and Tony Romo is available. While not exactly Peyton, Rodgers, or Luck, he should be consistent nonetheless. A little higher than I usually like to take a QB, but I don't want to get stuck with a guy like Blake Bortles.
Seventh Round - Ameer Abdullah (RB - Det).
Jordan Cameron is in the perfect place for him. Tannehill doesn't throw the ball deep, so lots of targets going to Cameron. I can't take my second TE though. Mike Wallace should benefit from Charles Johnson emerging and Bridgewater turning the corner in his second year. Still too deep to take a guy I don't really like. C.J. Spiller is the second coming of Darren Sproles in NO. Ameer Abdullah! I have been waiting and waiting and I just can't wait any longer. High upside rookie. Oh and he's a Lion! It's a no brainer.
Eighth Round - Charles Johnson (WR, Min).
Torrey Smith is the only deep threat in SF. I don't have enough steady WR production to draft him though. Decisions, decisions. Nelson Agholor or Charles Johnson. Agholor is going into a system that has produced two productive receivers both years Chip has been there. He'll be, at worst, the No. 2. Charles Johnson has Norv Turner as the OC and had a great end to last season. He's a big WR in a Turner system. Keenan Allen was awesome in that system, Josh Gordon was awesome in that system! I love both guys but I can only pick one. Johnson it is.
Ninth Round - Tevin Coleman (RB, Atl).
It might not be a bad idea to get another QB. Romo might not be playing at the end of the season if they get a big division lead. Joe Flacco plays his best football at the end of the season, and they'll probably squeak into the playoffs and make the Super Bowl. Tre Mason is the starter for the Rams until Gurley gets back. That might not be until the end of this season. Getting a starter at this point in the draft is a steal. Shane Vereen is interesting, if they use him like NE did and give him a few more carries. He could explode. Tevin Coleman was drafted specifically for the system in Atlanta. He also has no competition. Freeman is a 3rd down back at best. Coleman is big and fast. Hard to skip on all that upside.
Tenth Round - Marques Colston (WR, NO).
Time to solidify the roster. WR or QB? There's Nick Foles. He's not in Philly. anymore, but he did have a year with just two picks. Marques Colston is old. However, without Graham, maybe he becomes a TE by association and gets those targets.
Eleventh Round - Bishop Sankey (RB, Ten).
We can take a 49er here. Kaep and Vernon Davis are both still on the board. Both could absolutely blow up. I don't like taking either position this high on my bench. I'd rather have running back depth. Bishop Sankey was very disappointing last year, but he does have a rookie QB, and a rushing QB at that.
Twelfth Round - Percy Harvin (WR, Buf).
If I didn't have a TE, I think I could live with Heath Miller here. I could also go Seferian-Jenkins to for the upside. Reggie Bush gets a fresh start, and the 49ers could use an elusive back to go with Hyde. I can't seem to quit Percy Harvin, though, no matter how many times he hurts me.
Thirteenth Round - Terrance Williams (WR, Dal).
It's the last round before the K/DSTs. I did a good job of getting high upside backs. Andre Williams does have a lot of buzz about becoming the bell cow in NYG. Victor Cruz could come back, even at 80%, he should be great at this spot. I did draft Romo, so having his No. 2 WR could pay off big. Terrance Williams has a ton of upside opposite Dez!
Fourteenth Round - Ravens (DST, Bal).
Should I get a kicker or defense. The Ravens should be good. Suggs is still a stud, and C.J. Mosely is a beast! Roddy White is still there. I could draft him and drop someone closer to the season. I need a defense, though.
Fifteenth Round - Cody Parkey (K, Phi).
Man, if I didn't have to draft a kicker, I'd take Knile Davis. He is the best handcuff in the league. He's about the only sure fire handcuff.
I hope everyone enjoys reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it. The moral of the story: don't stop playing after the draft. The waiver wire wins more championships than the draft. I'm not saying that the draft isn't important, though. It is important to develop a process and stick with it. Of course, that's if your process is sound.
I hope you have a better draft than this next year.