There aren't many things in sports as much of a lock as the Colts winning the AFC South if Andrew Luck stays healthy. They have had the unbelievably-great fortune of having Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck back-to-back as their quarterback. That kind of thing tends to help with winning. Luck should start the season healthy, so pencil in the Colts for another division title.
This receiving crew is one of the more interesting groups in the league. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett don’t lack for big play ability. Hilton is one of the few WR1s that is primarily a big play threat. Moncrief is more of the prototypical WR1 at 6’2", 222 pounds, but he has yet to develop into a consistent pass catcher. He is in his 3rd season so we should expect a jump in production. If Dorsett can learn to work underneath without stealing from his deep shots, he will be the receiver to own in this offense. Dorsett will likely work out of the slot and should get at least a couple deep shots per game. If he gets the short passing game work also, he will be a steal.
Andrew Luck (QB) - 4400 yards, 33 TDs, 15 INTs, 275 yards, 2 TDs.
Luck had a very tough 2015. He was never healthy, even when playing, and then he lacerated his inner parts. That’s never a good thing. He also had a rib injury, a shoulder injury, and he didn’t play like the Andrew Luck we all expected. Luck is currently the 4th quarterback being drafted. If you feel he’s going to be the guy he was in 2014, that’s a steal. He’s a great pick in the early to middle rounds in dynasty and keeper leagues. He should be good for a long time.
Frank Gore (RB) – 900 yards, 6 TDs, 30 catches, 250 yards, 1 TD.
Gore is at the end of a sneaky-great career. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is his last season in the NFL. Gore was close to 1000 yards in 2015 and ended as the 12th running back in fantasy. He likely won’t be an RB1 in 2016, but if he stays relatively healthy, he’ll be a low end RB2. He’s not sexy, but he can be a productive piece of your fantasy team. Don’t be afraid to draft him as a bye-week replacement with the ability to start at flex. In good matchups, he's an RB2.
T.Y. Hilton (WR) - 80 catches, 1200 yards, 7 TDs.
For some reason or another, Hilton never ends up on any of my fantasy teams, not in mocks or live drafts. I have a hard time trusting him as a WR1 because he is in the DeSean Jackson mold. Hilton is much better, but I feel that if a defense wants to take him out of the offense, they can. He is being drafted in the same range as Demaryius Thomas and Kelvin Benjamin. I really don’t have an issue taking Hilton in that range, but I guess it’s a mental block on my part. Imagine that.
Donte Moncrief (WR) – 80 catches, 1100 yards, 7 TDs.
I was very excited about Moncrief at the end of the 2014 season. He was going to be the second wide receiver in an offense with Andrew Luck at the helm. The Colts must have heard about my excitement and promptly signed Andre Johnson. It is now the 2016 season, and Moncrief is going to be the WR2 in an offense with Andrew Luck, again. My excitement has been tempered, but if he is your third WR, you’re going to like that. He’s being drafted around the same time as Michael Floyd, so Moncrief isn't on any of my teams because I like Floyd better, but he could finish the season as the best Colts wide receiver in 2016
Dwayne Allen (TE)
Coby Fleener is no longer a Colt. The Colts do seem to like Jack Doyle a little, but he shouldn’t get the same playing time as Fleener. Expect the offense to feature three receivers and just one tight end in 2016. That means that there is going to be little competition for catches at the TE position. He should score TDs, and he's a good low end TE1/streamer. I will draft Allen as my tight end if Ebron is off the board.
Adam Vinatieri (K)
I know, I know, Vinatieri is a kicker, but he is being drafted as the 3rd kicker in fantasy, and that’s at pick 130. Yes, that is before the rookie wide receivers and most of the rookie running backs. He ended as the 15th kicker in fantasy last season. Someone in your league will draft him before the 10th round. If he’s not drafted that high in one of your leagues, the first round is on me. Don’t let that be you!
I completely expect this offense to be one of the most productive in fantasy in 2016. Expect Luck, Hilton, and Moncrief to be must-starts by week four. Allen and Gore will also be fantasy relevant, and by the end of the season, while not exciting, they will be in the conversation for starters.